PLACEMENT: Departmental
TITLE:
title
REQUEST FOR ADOPTION OF THE 2025 MARTIN COUNTY RESIDENTIAL CAPACITY ANALYSIS
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
executive summary
Comprehensive Plan Amendment (CPA) 21-11 Waterside Text proposes to expand the Primary Urban Service District, and the applicant has requested consideration at public hearings. Comprehensive Growth Management Plan (CGMP) policy states that such amendments “shall be considered only after the regular update to the Residential Capacity Analysis is completed and adopted by the Board of County Commissioners.”
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DEPARTMENT: Growth Management
PREPARED BY: Name: Clyde Dulin, AICP
Title: Comprehensive Planning Administrator
REQUESTED BY: Paul Schilling, Growth Management Director
PRESET: 11:00 AM
PROCEDURES: None
BACKGROUND/RELATED STRATEGIC GOAL:
The CGMP requires a Residential Capacity Analysis to be performed every five (5) years. Policy 4.2A.11. states that “Residential capacity for unincorporated Martin County shall be published to the Martin County web site and shall be updated every five years. Residential capacity shall be presented in tabular form for the Primary and Secondary Urban Service Districts and shall include: Data identified in Policy 4.1D.2, Policy 4.1D.3, Policy 4.1D.4 and Policy 4.1D.5., CGMP. The residential capacity shall be presented in tabular form with the projected population increases to demonstrate both the 10-year and the 20-year capacity for both the Urban Service Districts (Primary and Secondary).” The Residential Capacity Analysis produced in 2023 is attached to this agenda item as background information.
Separate from the CGMP text describing the methodology for a Residential Capacity Analysis are certain policies describing the Primary and Secondary Urban Service Districts. These policies contain criteria for amending the urban service districts, including the following:
Policy 4.7A.6. states that “Any proposed amendment to either the Primary Urban Service District or the Secondary Urban Service District boundaries shall be considered only after the regular update to the Residential Capacity Analysis is completed and adopted by the Board of County Commissioners.”
ISSUES:
The applicant for CPA 21-11 Waterside Text and CPA 21-12 Waterside Future Land Use Map (FLUM) has requested the amendments be scheduled for public hearings. Coordinating with the applicant, staff has scheduled the amendments for presentation to the Local Planning Agency on November 6, 2025, and the Board of County Commissioners on November 18, 2025.
In compliance with the CGMP policy quoted above, and in preparation for the scheduled public hearings, staff commissioned Metro Forecasting Models to produce the attached DRAFT 2025 Residential Capacity Analysis. As depicted on the last page of the DRAFT 2025 Residential Capacity Analysis, in a 10-year planning period from 2025 to 2035, the Urban Service Districts are projected to have 186 percent (186%) capacity. In a 20-year planning period from 2025 to 2045, the Urban Service Districts are projected to have 137 percent (137%) capacity.
This agenda item is not a public hearing on the CPA 21-11 Waterside Text or on CPA 21-12 Waterside FLUM amendments. No proposed amendment to the Comprehensive Growth Management Plan is being presented for consideration.
LEGAL SUFFICIENCY REVIEW:
This item has been reviewed for legal sufficiency to determine whether it is consistent with applicable law, and staff have identified and addressed legal risks and developed strategies for legal defensibility, as applicable.
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
RECOMMENDATION
Move that the Board adopt the 2025 Residential Capacity Analysis.
ALTERNATIVE RECOMMENDATIONS
Continue the agenda item to a date certain.
FISCAL IMPACT:
RECOMMENDATION
N/A
ALTERNATIVE RECOMMENDATIONS
N/A
DOCUMENT(S) REQUIRING ACTION:
☐Budget Transfer / Amendment ☐ Chair Letter ☐Contract / Agreement
☐Grant / Application ☐Notice ☐Ordinance ☐Resolution
☒Other: 2025 Residential Capacity Analysis
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